Russian President Vladimir Putin is pursuing a bold ambition: reshaping the global order into a multipolar world where Western dominance is weakened and powerful regional players act with fewer constraints. At the heart of this vision lies Iran — a country now facing intense internal unrest that could threaten Russia’s long-term geopolitical strategy.
Iran’s Unrest and Moscow’s Quiet Concern
Iran has been shaken by widespread protests, particularly in Tehran, driven by economic collapse, corruption, and anger at the country’s rigid religious establishment. Human rights groups estimate that more than 2,500 protesters have been killed as security forces attempt to suppress the unrest.
While the Kremlin has largely avoided public commentary, analysts say Putin is closely monitoring the situation. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has offered only limited remarks, focusing criticism on the United States rather than the protests themselves. This silence reflects Moscow’s concern: regime change in Iran could dramatically weaken Russia’s influence in the Middle East.
A Strategic Partnership Beyond Trade
Iran is far more than a trading partner for Russia. Despite Western sanctions, the two countries have developed deep military and strategic cooperation. Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed drones, which have been used extensively in the war in Ukraine, and has assisted Moscow in developing domestic drone-manufacturing capabilities.
More importantly, Iran and Russia share a common worldview. Both oppose Western liberal democracy and support a system where powerful states exert control over their regions without outside interference. According to geopolitical analysts, this ideological alignment makes Iran a cornerstone of Putin’s broader global agenda.
Recent Setbacks Heighten the Stakes
Russia’s anxiety over Iran is amplified by recent geopolitical losses. In late 2024, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — a longtime Kremlin ally — was ousted by rebel forces, forcing Russia to reset its role in the country. Soon after, Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, Russia’s key partner in Latin America, was captured during a US military operation, exposing Moscow’s limited ability to protect its allies.
These events have embarrassed the Kremlin and highlighted its declining influence abroad. While Syria and Venezuela were damaging losses, Iran would be far more consequential.
Putin’s Worst-Case Scenario
Iran occupies a critical position in Russia’s Middle East strategy. Analysts warn that a new Iranian government — especially one shaped by popular protests — could seek improved relations with the West to stabilize the economy and lift sanctions. Such a shift would represent Putin’s worst-case scenario.
Although Russia and Iran have signed a long-term strategic partnership, they have no formal defense alliance. Russia has also made clear it does not support Iran developing nuclear weapons, as seen during last year’s brief but intense conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, when Moscow remained on the sidelines.
What Comes Next?
Most experts believe Iran is unlikely to fully abandon Russia, regardless of political change. Iran remains a regional power with its own strategic interests. However, even a partial pivot toward the West would weaken Russia’s position and undermine Putin’s vision of a world less shaped by US influence.
For Vladimir Putin, Iran is not just another ally — it is a pillar of his plan to “make a different world.” As protests continue and uncertainty grows, the future of Tehran’s leadership may prove pivotal not only for Iran, but for the balance of global power itself.